Social Security's 2027 COLA Estimated at 3.6-3.8%, Official Number Due in October

Early estimates for Social Security's 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) range from 3.6% to 3.8%, with the official figure to be confirmed by the Social Security Administration on 14 October based on third-quarter inflation data.

What the estimates currently show

AARP estimates a 3.6% increase, which would raise the average retired worker's monthly benefit from roughly $2,026 to about $2,101. The Senior Citizens League projects a slightly higher 3.8%, while independent analyst Mary Johnson revised her forecast to 3.7% this month, citing cooling inflation trends.

Why the estimate keeps shifting

The COLA is calculated from a specific measure of inflation (CPI-W) averaged over the third quarter, so the final figure depends on inflation data that hadn't fully arrived at the time these estimates were made. Each new month of data can nudge projections up or down until the calculation window closes and the official number is set.

When the increase actually takes effect

Whatever the final percentage, the 2027 COLA takes effect with payments beneficiaries receive starting in January 2027 — the announcement in October gives recipients and financial planners a few months' notice before the higher payments actually begin.